By James Shinn

ISBN-10: 0833058266

ISBN-13: 9780833058263

The goal of a negotiated peace in Afghanistan has been firmly embraced by means of lots of the power events to a treaty. despite the fact that, arriving at an contract in regards to the sequencing, timing, and prioritization of peace phrases could be tricky, given the divergence within the events' pursuits and targets. The U.S. goal

in those negotiations might be a solid and peaceable Afghanistan that neither hosts nor collaborates with terrorists.

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The latter may make it easier for the Taliban leaders to cut their remaining ties to Al Qaeda, a key American and NATO demand. The leadership of the Taliban’s Quetta Shura has several incentives to negotiate, including • the fact that many of its leaders have been killed by American special operations forces inside Afghanistan and by Central Intelligence Agency drone strikes in Pakistan • the gradual attenuation of the Quetta Shura’s command over the Taliban organization as a result of this attrition • fear that the United States may be preparing to stay indefinitely in the absence of an accord • the perception that the United States and its NATO allies may, on the other hand, be ready to negotiate terms of exit rather than fight to the end • anger over Pakistani manipulation and intimidation, combined with a fear of being sold out by Islamabad in a separate deal with Kabul and Washington.

We also do not know how coherent the insurgency is, either horizontally or vertically, with regard to negotiating a peace accord, although we believe it to be fairly incoherent across both dimensions, which is not necessarily good news. As in the case with Pakistan’s ambivalent approach to a peace accord, we may not know the answer to either question until negotiations are under way. The Kabul Government The Kabul government is fragile, relatively new, and governing a very poor, war-torn country.

Powerful forces in Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan would prefer indefinite warfare to any peace settlement, not least because of the vast sums of American money being spent on both sides of the Durand Line. In Afghanistan, these potential spoilers include local contractors (particularly security contractors), corrupt officials, and drug dealers, all of whom would find it more difficult to prosper in a peacetime environment. Pakistan would also lose considerable revenue from American assistance and NATO transit traffic were the war to end.

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Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer by James Shinn

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